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Saturday Select

Selection: ON HIS OWN – 16:15 Aintree Grand National (2 Points)

The wait for the much anticipated annual event is finally over! The 2012 John Smith’s Grand National is upon us. This year’s renewal will take place at 4.15pm on Saturday, 14th April 2012. The world’s greatest steeplechase will have total prize money of £975,000, an increase of £25,000 from last year. This is the sixth consecutive year in which the prize monies have increased. If only the sponsors can dig deeper into their pockets, this could have been the first £1 million Grand National!

The winner of the first National held in 1839 was called Lottery and today will feel like it is one to find the winner. The field is limited to 40 runners due to safety grounds, and it’ll likely be a pleasant sunny day too. I’m sure many commentators, analyst and punters have their retrospective methods in finding their winner for the race. Here’s my reasoning below, behind how I try to find the winner today!

AGE

Unfortunately, like with most people and animals, age catches up with us. Statistics also shows this is the case where only two 12 years old horse winning this race; Royal Athlete (1994) and Amberleigh House (2004). This would make Hello Bud and Black Apalachi, both aged 13, unlikely to be contenders. However, being too young is also unlikely to win, maybe due to inexperience; with history showing no horse younger than 8 years old had won in over 68 years. Thus Organisedconfusion, Tharawaat, and Viking Blond fall into the latter category.

This leaves us with 35/40 runners left to eliminate…

WEIGHT

Being able to last the course is one matter, but being able to carry a burden round the course is another. Before 2010 any horse carrying over 11st 1lbs was almost ignored due to the excessive burden. However, Don’t Push it made pay with 11st 5lbs. But statistics shows only 3/21 winners being able to do this, thus it is still a rarity for any horse being able to carry weights over 11st 5lbs and win this year. This will mean last year’s winner Ballabriggs, the current bookies favourite Synchronised, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges, and Calgary Bay are out of the frame.

This leaves us with 30/40 runners left to eliminate…

FORM

Having the horse being in good nick is important for such a big task. All winners since 1988 have won previously since the turn of the year in which the Grand National takes place. With that being the case there are 16 horses that have yet to register a win in 2012. These are Alfa Beat, Planet of Sound, Junior, Chicago Grey, Shakalakaboomboom, West End Rocker, Always Right, Cappa Bleu, Rare Bob, Treacle, The Midnight Club, Mon Mome, Arbor Supreme, Becauseicouldntsee, State of Play, Swing Bill, Midnight Haze, In Compliance, Neptune Equester, and Deep Purple.

This leaves us with 10/40 runners left to eliminate…

STAMINA

Given that the Grand National is run over 4 mile 4 furlongs, it certainly requires plenty of stamina to last the distance. An interesting statistic shows that 20/20 winners had previously won over three miles or further. To find a horse who had not won at 3 miles before the Grand National, you’ll have to go back nearly 40 years for a horse, Gay Trip to do this. Therefore, one can safely assume that if any of the runners today has not won over 3 miles, they are unlikely to competitive. So this would rule out Tatenen, and Quiscover Fontaine.

This leaves us with 8/40 runners left to eliminate…

WINS OVER £19,000 RACES

In the past 19 years all but one of the winners had won a race worth at least £19,000 prior to Grand National. This highlights that the horse needs to have been running competitively in good standard races. Thus the high prize money taking shows it is competitive enough to take these races. Thus this excludes Killyglen, and Postmaster.

This leaves us with 6/40 runners left to eliminate…

THE GOING

Some horse like to run on different surfaces. Maybe it’s the feel, maybe it’s the running style. Whatever the reason, it is an important element to consider. With the going at good and more sunshine according to the weather, the ground will likely be heading drier. Therefore this would discount Seabass, Giles Cross, and Vic Venturi who has struggled anything dryer than good-soft.

This leaves us with 3/40 runners left to eliminate…

JUMPING ABILITY

Since the Grand National is classed as “the world’s greatest steeplechase”, it is important for obvious reasons that the participants need to be able to jump well and reliably over the 16 fences they’ll encounter. Off the remaining candidates, According To Pete, On His Own, and Sunnyhillboy there is ONLY ONE horse who has yet to make a career fall excluding being brought down by other horses. As it is the only horse that satisfies this final category, it will also be my selection to be today’s Grand National winner. ON HIS OWN!!